{"created":"2023-06-19T10:28:06.267645+00:00","id":1353,"links":{},"metadata":{"_buckets":{"deposit":"7f885288-d369-407d-bb2e-c2946a1bd5cf"},"_deposit":{"created_by":18,"id":"1353","owners":[18],"pid":{"revision_id":0,"type":"depid","value":"1353"},"status":"published"},"_oai":{"id":"oai:tama.repo.nii.ac.jp:00001353","sets":["2:33:200"]},"author_link":["1787","1788"],"control_number":"1353","item_10002_biblio_info_7":{"attribute_name":"書誌情報","attribute_value_mlt":[{"bibliographicIssueDates":{"bibliographicIssueDate":"2023-03-31","bibliographicIssueDateType":"Issued"},"bibliographicPageEnd":"74","bibliographicPageStart":"63","bibliographicVolumeNumber":"15","bibliographic_titles":[{"bibliographic_title":"紀要"}]}]},"item_10002_description_5":{"attribute_name":"抄録","attribute_value_mlt":[{"subitem_description":"2019 年に発見された新型コロナウイルス感染症（Covid-19）は変異を繰り返しながら、2022 年現在でも猛威を振るっている。この感染症の流行を防ぐために、日本政府は東京都における緊急事態宣言を過去 4 回発令した。本稿では東京都における新型コロナウイルス感染症の陽性者数のデータを使い、緊急事態宣言の発令が陽性者数の変化に与えた影響を因果効果分析を用いて分析する。因果効果分析はベイズ構造時系列モデルを使って仮想的なデータを作成し、実際の観測データと比較することで一時的な介入の効果を推定する手法である。この手法を緊急事態宣言の分析に実際に応用することで、実用上の課題について検討する。","subitem_description_type":"Abstract"},{"subitem_description":"Coronavirus disease (Covid-19), a new type of coronavirus infection discovered in 2019, has repeatedly mutated and is still raging as of 2022. The Japanese government has declared a state of emergency in Tokyo four times to prevent an outbreak of this infectious disease. In this paper, I will study the impact of the emergency declaration on the number of positive cases using causal impact analysis with the data on the number of positive cases of Covid-19 infection in Tokyo. Causal impact analysis is a method for estimating the effects of temporary interventions by creating hypothetical data using a Bayesian structural time-series model and comparing them with actual observed data. By applying this method to the analysis of emergency declarations, I will discuss practical issues with it.","subitem_description_type":"Abstract"}]},"item_10002_publisher_8":{"attribute_name":"出版者","attribute_value_mlt":[{"subitem_publisher":"多摩大学グローバルスタディーズ学部"}]},"item_10002_source_id_11":{"attribute_name":"書誌レコードID","attribute_value_mlt":[{"subitem_source_identifier":"AA12419269","subitem_source_identifier_type":"NCID"}]},"item_10002_source_id_9":{"attribute_name":"ISSN","attribute_value_mlt":[{"subitem_source_identifier":"18838480","subitem_source_identifier_type":"ISSN"}]},"item_creator":{"attribute_name":"著者","attribute_type":"creator","attribute_value_mlt":[{"creatorNames":[{"creatorName":"渡邊, 泰典"},{"creatorName":"ワタナベ, ヤスノリ","creatorNameLang":"ja-Kana"}],"nameIdentifiers":[{"nameIdentifier":"1787","nameIdentifierScheme":"WEKO"}]},{"creatorNames":[{"creatorName":"Watanabe, Yasunori","creatorNameLang":"en"}],"nameIdentifiers":[{"nameIdentifier":"1788","nameIdentifierScheme":"WEKO"}]}]},"item_files":{"attribute_name":"ファイル情報","attribute_type":"file","attribute_value_mlt":[{"accessrole":"open_date","date":[{"dateType":"Available","dateValue":"2023-03-29"}],"displaytype":"detail","filename":"S_15_063_074_渡邊.pdf","filesize":[{"value":"3.0 MB"}],"format":"application/pdf","licensetype":"license_note","mimetype":"application/pdf","url":{"label":"S_15_063_074_渡邊","url":"https://tama.repo.nii.ac.jp/record/1353/files/S_15_063_074_渡邊.pdf"},"version_id":"ca144fa6-66fb-4bb0-ad89-b6f59f9b1903"}]},"item_keyword":{"attribute_name":"キーワード","attribute_value_mlt":[{"subitem_subject":"因果効果分析","subitem_subject_scheme":"Other"},{"subitem_subject":"ベイズ構造時系列モデル","subitem_subject_scheme":"Other"},{"subitem_subject":"Covid-19","subitem_subject_scheme":"Other"},{"subitem_subject":"緊急事態宣言","subitem_subject_scheme":"Other"},{"subitem_subject":"Causal Impact Analysis","subitem_subject_language":"en","subitem_subject_scheme":"Other"},{"subitem_subject":"Bayesian Structural Time-Series Model","subitem_subject_language":"en","subitem_subject_scheme":"Other"},{"subitem_subject":"Covid-19","subitem_subject_language":"en","subitem_subject_scheme":"Other"},{"subitem_subject":"Emergency Declaration","subitem_subject_language":"en","subitem_subject_scheme":"Other"}]},"item_language":{"attribute_name":"言語","attribute_value_mlt":[{"subitem_language":"jpn"}]},"item_resource_type":{"attribute_name":"資源タイプ","attribute_value_mlt":[{"resourcetype":"departmental bulletin paper","resourceuri":"http://purl.org/coar/resource_type/c_6501"}]},"item_title":"因果効果分析による緊急事態宣言の介入効果に関する予備的研究","item_titles":{"attribute_name":"タイトル","attribute_value_mlt":[{"subitem_title":"因果効果分析による緊急事態宣言の介入効果に関する予備的研究","subitem_title_language":"ja"},{"subitem_title":"A Preliminary Study on Intervention Effect of Emergency  Declaration by Causal Impact Analysis","subitem_title_language":"en"}]},"item_type_id":"10002","owner":"18","path":["200"],"pubdate":{"attribute_name":"公開日","attribute_value":"2023-03-29"},"publish_date":"2023-03-29","publish_status":"0","recid":"1353","relation_version_is_last":true,"title":["因果効果分析による緊急事態宣言の介入効果に関する予備的研究"],"weko_creator_id":"18","weko_shared_id":-1},"updated":"2023-07-21T08:26:15.410966+00:00"}